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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Pogoń Siedlce — I Liga 2018

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
8/24/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 7Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola29%
×Draw26%
Pogoń Siedlce45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.12
Pogoń Siedlce
1.46

Pogoń Siedlce creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
0.71
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.94
Pogoń Siedlce
1.53

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
55%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Pogoń Siedlce
74%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
71%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
11%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
67%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
31%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
10%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
77%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
43%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
39%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 0.71 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.12

Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.97 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
29%
level
26%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
45%

Pogoń Siedlce at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Stalowa Wola 1–3 Pogoń Siedlce

Pogoń Siedlce beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-1 in I Liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.