Pogoń Siedlce 2–0 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Pogoń Siedlce

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

7/29/2023

II Liga - East · Round 2Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce41%

×Draw25%

Stal Stalowa Wola34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń SiedlceExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.31

Pogoń Siedlce creates 13% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

1.48

creates per match

1.21

1.42

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.48

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.21

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce

1.42

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw

66%

Pogoń Siedlce or Stal Stalowa Wola

75%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

59%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

20%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

77%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

43%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

19%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

73%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

38%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

55%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

41%

level

25%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

34%

Pogoń Siedlce at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff