Stal Stalowa Wola 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

S. Strózik 90+4'

Jonathan 81'

4/27/2024

II Liga - East · Round 30Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola41%

×Draw24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.56

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.40

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

1.71

1.08

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.63

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.71

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.08

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

66%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

76%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

59%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

20%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

79%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

46%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

21%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

75%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

41%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

55%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

41%

level

24%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

34%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

C. Polak

18'

L. Soszynski

46'

T. Madembo← M. Bykowski

51'

A. Imiela

66'

M. Cywinski

67'

T. Welna

67'

B. Pioterczak← A. Imiela

70'

F. Kozłowski← M. Cywiński

74'

T. Madembo

81'

J. Górski← K. Chełmecki

81'

Jonathan

84'

M. Mydlarz← Ł. Soszyński

84'

A. Ziarko← J. Kowalski

90+1'

L. Kosakiewicz

90+4'

S. Strózik

Stal

Kotwica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

67'▲B. Pioterczak←▼A. Imiela

81'▲J. Górski←▼K. Chełmecki

84'▲M. Mydlarz←▼Ł. Soszyński

84'▲A. Ziarko←▼J. Kowalski

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

PioterczakGórskiMydlarzZiarko

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

46'▲T. Madembo←▼M. Bykowski

70'▲F. Kozłowski←▼M. Cywiński

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

MademboKozłowski

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Stal Stalowa Wola and Kotwica Kołobrzeg drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Jonathan (81'), S. Strózik (90+4').

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.

Stal Stalowa Wola vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg