Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Stal Stalowa Wola

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stal Stalowa Wola

F. Kozłowski 88'

K. Ibe-Torti 34'

2/15/2025

I Liga · Round 20Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg43%

×Draw28%

Stal Stalowa Wola29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.32

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.03

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.76

creates per match

0.88

1.18

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.76

Stal Stalowa Wola

0.88

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.18

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

71%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Stal Stalowa Wola

72%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

57%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

20%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

73%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

38%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

15%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

64%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

60%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.76 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 0.88 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

43%

level

28%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

K. Ibe-Torti

40'

A. Trojnarski

46'

K. Wojtkowski← M. Mydlarz

58'

F. Oliveira

60'

B. Kukułowicz← D. Urban

68'

L. Ziętek← M. Lasek

76'

M. Cywinski

77'

M. Ruszel← Thiago

77'

B. Bida← K. Ibe-Torti

88'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

Kotwica

Stal

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

68'▲L. Ziętek←▼M. Lasek

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

ZiętekKrzepiszObłojStrojekBarzyk

Manager: I. Pietrzykowski

46'▲K. Wojtkowski←▼M. Mydlarz

60'▲B. Kukułowicz←▼D. Urban

77'▲M. Ruszel←▼Thiago

77'▲B. Bida←▼K. Ibe-Torti

Stal Stalowa Wola substitutes

WojtkowskiKukułowiczRuszelBidaGvozdenovićPioterczakSmyłekNiepsujMehremić

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Stal Stalowa Wola drew 1-1 in I Liga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: K. Ibe-Torti (34'), F. Kozłowski (88').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Stal Stalowa Wola — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Stal Stalowa Wola