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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
2 – 0
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
4/3/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola67%
×Draw19%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.25
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.93

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 142% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.89
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
0.96
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
86%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
81%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
33%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
44%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
89%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
65%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
39%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
61%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
24%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
82%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.89 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
67%
level
19%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
14%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.