Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3–2 Stal Stalowa Wola

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

FT

3 – 2

Stal Stalowa Wola

10/14/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów21%

×Draw20%

Stal Stalowa Wola59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jutrzenka GiebułtówExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.25

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.29

Stal Stalowa Wola

2.25

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

1.50

creates per match

1.74

2.75

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

1.50

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.74

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.75

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw

41%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Stal Stalowa Wola

80%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

79%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

9%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

72%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

37%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

14%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

89%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

65%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

27%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

21%

level

20%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

59%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff