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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Jastrzębie — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
11/18/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola51%
×Draw25%
Jastrzębie24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Jastrzębie
1.03

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 58% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Jastrzębie
0.98

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Jastrzębie
1.62

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
76%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Jastrzębie
75%
Draw or Jastrzębie
49%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
27%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
80%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
48%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
22%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
64%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
28%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
68%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
51%
level
25%
Jastrzębie scores more
24%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 3–1 Jastrzębie

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Jastrzębie 3-1 in II Liga - East on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.