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Jastrzębie vs Stal Stalowa Wola — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
7/22/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jastrzębie39%
×Draw27%
Stal Stalowa Wola34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.33
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.21

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.48

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
66%
Jastrzębie or Stal Stalowa Wola
73%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
61%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
18%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
74%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
38%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
15%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
71%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
35%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
53%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
39%
level
27%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
34%

Jastrzębie at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jastrzębie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Jastrzębie 0–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Jastrzębie and Stal Stalowa Wola drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.