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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Hutnik Kraków — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
1/24/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola63%
×Draw18%
Hutnik Kraków19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.48
Hutnik Kraków
1.30

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 91% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.67
Hutnik Kraków
1.60

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Hutnik Kraków
2.30

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Hutnik Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
81%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Hutnik Kraków
82%
Draw or Hutnik Kraków
37%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
41%
Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
92%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
70%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
44%
Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
73%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
37%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
77%
Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Hutnik Kraków away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 2.67 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.48

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.60 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
63%
level
18%
Hutnik Kraków scores more
19%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Stal Stalowa Wola 1–2 Hutnik Kraków

Hutnik Kraków beat Stal Stalowa Wola 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2025.