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Hutnik Kraków vs Stal Stalowa Wola — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hutnik Kraków
Hutnik Kraków
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hutnik Kraków45%
×Draw22%
Stal Stalowa Wola33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hutnik Kraków
1.89
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.60

Hutnik Kraków creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hutnik Kraków
1.58
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.20

allows per match

Hutnik Kraków
2.00
Stal Stalowa Wola
2.20

finishing

Hutnik Kraków+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hutnik Kraków ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hutnik Kraków or draw
67%
Hutnik Kraków or Stal Stalowa Wola
78%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
55%

Winning margin

Hutnik Kraków wins by 2+
25%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hutnik Kraków 1+ goals
85%
Hutnik Kraków 2+ goals
56%
Hutnik Kraków 3+ goals
29%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
80%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
47%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hutnik Kraków (draw refunded)
58%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hutnik Kraków at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hutnik Kraków attack 1.58 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.20 + Hutnik Kraków defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hutnik Kraków scores more
45%
level
22%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
33%

Hutnik Kraków at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hutnik Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hutnik Kraków vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Hutnik Kraków and Stal Stalowa Wola drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.