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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Czarni Połaniec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola61%
×Draw19%
Czarni Połaniec20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.33
Czarni Połaniec
1.25

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.67
Czarni Połaniec
1.50

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Czarni Połaniec
2.00

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
80%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Czarni Połaniec
81%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
39%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
39%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
90%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
67%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
41%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
71%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
36%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
76%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 2.67 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.50 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
61%
level
19%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
20%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Stalowa Wola vs Czarni Połaniec

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Czarni Połaniec 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.