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Czarni Połaniec vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
9/24/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Czarni Połaniec35%
×Draw24%
Stal Stalowa Wola41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Czarni Połaniec
1.41
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.56

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 11% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 54 away

creates per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.74
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Czarni Połaniec
1.38
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Połaniec ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Czarni Połaniec or draw
59%
Czarni Połaniec or Stal Stalowa Wola
76%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
65%

Winning margin

Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
16%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
76%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
41%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
17%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
79%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
46%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
46%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Połaniec at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.74 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Czarni Połaniec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Czarni Połaniec scores more
35%
level
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
41%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Czarni Połaniec vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Czarni Połaniec 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MKS Czarni Połaniec in Połaniec.