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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Chojniczanka Chojnice — II Liga - East 2019

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
10/5/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola41%
×Draw26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.43
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.27

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 87 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.63
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.45

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.08
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.23

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Chojniczanka Chojnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
67%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Chojniczanka Chojnice
74%
Draw or Chojniczanka Chojnice
59%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
19%
Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
76%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
42%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
17%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
72%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
36%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
55%
Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.63 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.45 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
41%
level
26%
Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
33%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–3 Chojniczanka Chojnice

Chojniczanka Chojnice beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-2 in II Liga - East on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stali Stalowa Wola in Stalowa Wola.