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Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stal Stalowa Wola — II Liga - East 2019

Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
3/3/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion Miejski Chojnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chojniczanka Chojnice51%
×Draw24%
Stal Stalowa Wola25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.69
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.10

Chojniczanka Chojnice creates 54% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 52 away

creates per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.91
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.21

allows per match

Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.99
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.48

finishing

Chojniczanka Chojnice+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chojniczanka Chojnice ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chojniczanka Chojnice or draw
75%
Chojniczanka Chojnice or Stal Stalowa Wola
76%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
49%

Winning margin

Chojniczanka Chojnice wins by 2+
28%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chojniczanka Chojnice 1+ goals
82%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 2+ goals
50%
Chojniczanka Chojnice 3+ goals
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
67%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
30%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chojniczanka Chojnice (draw refunded)
67%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chojniczanka Chojnice at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chojniczanka Chojnice attack 1.91 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Chojniczanka Chojnice defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chojniczanka Chojnice scores more
51%
level
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
25%

Chojniczanka Chojnice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chojniczanka Chojnice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Chojniczanka Chojnice 1–1 Stal Stalowa Wola

Chojniczanka Chojnice and Stal Stalowa Wola drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Chojnice in Chojnice.