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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Avia Świdnik — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola62%
×Draw17%
Avia Świdnik21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.83
Avia Świdnik
1.63

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 74% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
2.67
Avia Świdnik
2.25

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.00
Avia Świdnik
3.00

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
79%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Avia Świdnik
83%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
38%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
42%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
94%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
77%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
53%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
80%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
48%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
75%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 2.67 + Avia Świdnik defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Avia Świdnik attack 2.25 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
62%
level
17%
Avia Świdnik scores more
21%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Stal
Avia
Maciej Musial
Manager: Maciej Musial
Wojciech Szacon
Manager: Wojciech Szacon

Friendlies Clubs: Stal Stalowa Wola 2–2 Avia Świdnik

Stal Stalowa Wola and Avia Świdnik drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.