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Avia Świdnik vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
0 – 2
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
4/22/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Avia Świdnik45%
×Draw24%
Stal Stalowa Wola32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
1.66
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.36

Avia Świdnik creates 22% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 54 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
68%
Avia Świdnik or Stal Stalowa Wola
76%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
55%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
23%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
81%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
49%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
23%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
74%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
39%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
59%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.66

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
45%
level
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
32%

Avia Świdnik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avia Świdnik vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Avia Świdnik 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.