Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Miedz Legnica: Result & Stats

Stal Rzeszów

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Miedz Legnica

8/23/2025

I Liga · Round 7Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stal Rzeszów39%

×Draw25%

Miedz Legnica36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal RzeszówExpected goals in this matchMiedz Legnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.39

Stal Rzeszów

1.46

Miedz Legnica

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 105 away

1.75

creates per match

1.23

1.54

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.75

Miedz Legnica

1.23

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów

1.54

Miedz Legnica

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Miedz Legnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw

64%

Stal Rzeszów or Miedz Legnica

75%

Draw or Miedz Legnica

61%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

19%

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

77%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

43%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

18%

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

75%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

40%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

52%

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more

39%

level

25%

Miedz Legnica scores more

36%

Stal Rzeszów at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff