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Miedz Legnica vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
2/15/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 20Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Miedz Legnica52%
×Draw23%
Stal Rzeszów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.79
Stal Rzeszów
1.17

Miedz Legnica creates 53% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 69 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
75%
Miedz Legnica or Stal Rzeszów
77%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
48%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
29%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
83%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
53%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
26%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
69%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
33%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
68%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
52%
level
23%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
25%

Miedz Legnica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Miedz Legnica 3–3 Stal Rzeszów

Miedz Legnica and Stal Rzeszów drew 3-3 in I Liga on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.