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Stal Rzeszów U18 vs Jagiellonia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Stal Rzeszów U18
Stal Rzeszów U18
FT
2 – 6
Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
8/15/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stal Rzeszów U1835%
×Draw21%
Jagiellonia U1844%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów U18
1.83
Jagiellonia U18
2.09

Jagiellonia U18 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów U18
1.93
Jagiellonia U18
1.78

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów U18
2.40
Jagiellonia U18
1.73

finishing

Stal Rzeszów U18+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów U18 ↓

Jagiellonia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów U18 or draw
56%
Stal Rzeszów U18 or Jagiellonia U18
79%
Draw or Jagiellonia U18
65%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów U18 wins by 2+
18%
Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów U18 1+ goals
84%
Stal Rzeszów U18 2+ goals
54%
Stal Rzeszów U18 3+ goals
28%
Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
88%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
62%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów U18 (draw refunded)
44%
Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów U18 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Jagiellonia U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów U18 attack 1.93 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Jagiellonia U18 attack 1.78 + Stal Rzeszów U18 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stal Rzeszów U18 scores more
35%
level
21%
Jagiellonia U18 scores more
44%

Jagiellonia U18 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów U18 vs Jagiellonia U18

Jagiellonia U18 beat Stal Rzeszów U18 6-2 in Central Youth League on August 15, 2021.