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Jagiellonia U18 vs Stal Rzeszów U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
FT
5 – 0
Stal Rzeszów U18
Stal Rzeszów U18
11/28/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jagiellonia U1870%
×Draw15%
Stal Rzeszów U1815%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U18
3.13
Stal Rzeszów U18
1.45

Jagiellonia U18 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18
2.79
Stal Rzeszów U18
0.93

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18
1.97
Stal Rzeszów U18
3.47

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów U18+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Stal Rzeszów U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw
85%
Jagiellonia U18 or Stal Rzeszów U18
85%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów U18
30%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
50%
Stal Rzeszów U18 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
95%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
81%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
59%
Stal Rzeszów U18 1+ goals
77%
Stal Rzeszów U18 2+ goals
42%
Stal Rzeszów U18 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
82%
Stal Rzeszów U18 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Stal Rzeszów U18 away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Stal Rzeszów U18 defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 3.13

Stal Rzeszów U18 attack 0.93 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more
70%
level
15%
Stal Rzeszów U18 scores more
15%

Jagiellonia U18 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Jagiellonia U18 5–0 Stal Rzeszów U18

Jagiellonia U18 beat Stal Rzeszów U18 5-0 in Central Youth League on November 28, 2021.