Stal Mielec 0–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz: Result & Stats

Stal Mielec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

R. Wolsztynski 40'

6/29/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stal Mielec42%

×Draw25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal MielecExpected goals in this matchSandecja Nowy Sącz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Stal Mielec

1.48

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.29

Stal Mielec creates 15% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.82

creates per match

1.14

1.45

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Stal Mielec

1.82

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.14

allows per match

Stal Mielec

1.45

Sandecja Nowy Sącz

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw

67%

Stal Mielec or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

75%

Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz

58%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

20%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

77%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

43%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

19%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals

72%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals

37%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

56%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.82 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.14 + Stal Mielec defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Mielec scores more

42%

level

25%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more

33%

Stal Mielec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

R. Wolsztynski

Stal

Sandecja

Manager: K. Kiereś

Manager: R. Kasperczyk