Stal Mielec vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Stal Mielec51%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz24%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Stal Mielec creates 58% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stal Mielec ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches
Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stal Mielec attack 1.80 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60
Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Stal Mielec at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Raków Częstochowa
ŁKS ŁódźStal MielecSandecja Nowy Sącz
Jastrzębie
Podbeskidzie
Tychy 71
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Stomil Olsztyn
Odra Opole
Warta Poznań
Chrobry Głogów
Wigry Suwałki
Bytovia Bytów
GKS Katowice
Garbarnia KrakówIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stal Mielec host Sandecja Nowy Sącz on Friday, 18 October 2019 at 17:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2018/2019 season.
I Liga: Stal Mielec 5–1 Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Stal Mielec beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 5-1 in I Liga on October 18, 2019.
Goals: M. Małkowski (5'), L. Janoszka (38'), B. Nowak (53' pen), M. Mak (81', 85'), W. Lisowski (88').
The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Mielec.