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Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
3/10/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Mielec47%
×Draw25%
Ruch Chorzów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.54
Ruch Chorzów
1.13

Stal Mielec creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Ruch Chorzów
1.12

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Ruch Chorzów
1.94

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
72%
Stal Mielec or Ruch Chorzów
75%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
53%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
24%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
79%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
45%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
20%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
68%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
31%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
63%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.12 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
47%
level
25%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
28%

Stal Mielec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Stal Mielec 3–1 Ruch Chorzów

Stal Mielec beat Ruch Chorzów 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.