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Ruch Chorzów vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
9/1/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ruch Chorzów45%
×Draw25%
Stal Mielec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruch Chorzów
1.52
Stal Mielec
1.20

Ruch Chorzów creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.24
Stal Mielec
1.11

allows per match

Ruch Chorzów
1.29
Stal Mielec
1.80

finishing

Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruch Chorzów ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ruch Chorzów or draw
70%
Ruch Chorzów or Stal Mielec
75%
Draw or Stal Mielec
55%

Winning margin

Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
22%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
78%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
45%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
20%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
70%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
34%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
60%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruch Chorzów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Ruch Chorzów defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ruch Chorzów scores more
45%
level
25%
Stal Mielec scores more
30%

Ruch Chorzów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Stal Mielec

Ruch Chorzów and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.