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Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
5/17/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 33Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec36%
×Draw28%
Pogon Szczecin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.19
Pogon Szczecin
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 138 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Pogon Szczecin
1.26

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Pogon Szczecin
1.23

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Pogon Szczecin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
64%
Stal Mielec or Pogon Szczecin
72%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin
64%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
15%
Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
70%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
33%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
12%
Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
70%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
33%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
50%
Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
36%
level
28%
Pogon Szczecin scores more
36%

Stal Mielec at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin

Stal Mielec and Pogon Szczecin drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.