Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
11/25/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 16Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Pogon Szczecin53%
×Draw23%
Stal Mielec23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.79
Stal Mielec
1.10

Pogon Szczecin creates 63% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 83 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.77
Stal Mielec
1.11

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.10
Stal Mielec
1.80

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
77%
Pogon Szczecin or Stal Mielec
77%
Draw or Stal Mielec
47%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
30%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
83%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
53%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
26%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
67%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
30%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
70%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.77 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
53%
level
23%
Stal Mielec scores more
23%

Pogon Szczecin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Pogon Szczecin 2–3 Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Pogon Szczecin 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.