Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
3/3/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 23Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec36%
×Draw29%
Piast Gliwice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.13
Piast Gliwice
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 136 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Piast Gliwice
1.13

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Piast Gliwice
1.13

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
64%
Stal Mielec or Piast Gliwice
71%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
64%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
15%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
68%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
31%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
11%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
68%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
31%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
50%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Piast Gliwice attack 1.13 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
36%
level
29%
Piast Gliwice scores more
36%

Stal Mielec at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Stal Mielec 0–2 Piast Gliwice

Piast Gliwice beat Stal Mielec 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.