Piast Gliwice 2–2 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stal Mielec

2/21/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Piast Gliwice50%

×Draw25%

Stal Mielec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.02

Piast Gliwice

1.56

Stal Mielec

1.02

Piast Gliwice creates 53% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 83 away

1.32

creates per match

1.11

0.93

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.32

Stal Mielec

1.11

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

0.93

Stal Mielec

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

75%

Piast Gliwice or Stal Mielec

75%

Draw or Stal Mielec

50%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

26%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

79%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

46%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

21%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

64%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

27%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

67%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.32 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

50%

level

25%

Stal Mielec scores more

25%

Piast Gliwice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff