Stal Mielec 0–2 Piast Gliwice: Result & Stats

Stal Mielec

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Piast Gliwice

A. Pyrka 45+1'

K. Vida 18'

7/31/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 2Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stal Mielec47%

×Draw25%

Piast Gliwice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal MielecExpected goals in this matchPiast Gliwice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.16

Stal Mielec

1.59

Piast Gliwice

1.16

Stal Mielec creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

1.60

creates per match

1.38

0.93

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Stal Mielec

1.60

Piast Gliwice

1.38

allows per match

Stal Mielec

0.93

Piast Gliwice

1.58

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Stal Mielec-0.03on par

Piast Gliwice-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Piast Gliwice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw

72%

Stal Mielec or Piast Gliwice

75%

Draw or Piast Gliwice

53%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

24%

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

80%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

47%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

21%

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

69%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

32%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

63%

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.60 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Piast Gliwice attack 1.38 + Stal Mielec defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stal Mielec scores more

47%

level

25%

Piast Gliwice scores more

28%

Stal Mielec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Vida↳ P. Lipski

45+1'

A. Pyrka↳ P. Lipski

66'

A. Kolew← M. Urbańczyk

67'

W. Kłos← M. Budziński

67'

M. Żyro← Jonathan de Amo

68'

Alberto Toril← M. Żyro

76'

M. Wyjadłowski← M. Mak

76'

M. Ameyaw← A. Pyrka

80'

K. Sadłocha← M. Sitek

86'

D. Steczyk← K. Vida

Possession

Shots

Statistics

StalPiast

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots9

9Corners2

10Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target3

7Off Target6

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls20

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3