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Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź — I Liga 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
2/23/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 22Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Mielec42%
×Draw26%
ŁKS Łódź32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.25

Stal Mielec creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 103 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.80
ŁKS Łódź
1.43

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.08
ŁKS Łódź
1.14

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
68%
Stal Mielec or ŁKS Łódź
74%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
58%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
20%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
77%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
43%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
18%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
71%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
36%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
57%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.80 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.47

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.43 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
42%
level
26%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
32%

Stal Mielec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź

ŁKS Łódź beat Stal Mielec 2-1 in I Liga on February 23, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu in Mielec.