ŁKS Łódź 3–1 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

ŁKS Łódź

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stal Mielec

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Boisko KS Kolorado Wola Chorzelowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ŁKS Łódź68%

×Draw18%

Stal Mielec15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁKS ŁódźExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.08

ŁKS Łódź

2.48

Stal Mielec

1.08

ŁKS Łódź creates 130% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.82

creates per match

0.71

1.45

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.82

Stal Mielec

0.71

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź

1.45

Stal Mielec

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw

85%

ŁKS Łódź or Stal Mielec

82%

Draw or Stal Mielec

32%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

45%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

92%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

70%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

44%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

66%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

29%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

82%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 0.71, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.82 + Stal Mielec defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.48

Stal Mielec attack 0.71 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more

68%

level

18%

Stal Mielec scores more

15%

ŁKS Łódź at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff