Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
2/28/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 17Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Stal Mielec56%
×Draw24%
ŁKS Łódź20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.69
ŁKS Łódź
0.89

Stal Mielec creates 90% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 36 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
ŁKS Łódź
0.64

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
ŁKS Łódź
2.25

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

ŁKS Łódź →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
80%
Stal Mielec or ŁKS Łódź
76%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź
44%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
31%
ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
82%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
50%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
24%
ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
59%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
22%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
74%
ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
56%
level
24%
ŁKS Łódź scores more
20%

Stal Mielec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs ŁKS Łódź

Stal Mielec beat ŁKS Łódź 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.