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Stal Mielec vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
2/7/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec40%
×Draw27%
Jagiellonia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.33
Jagiellonia
1.19

Stal Mielec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 138 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Jagiellonia
1.26

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Jagiellonia
1.52

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
67%
Stal Mielec or Jagiellonia
73%
Draw or Jagiellonia
60%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
18%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
74%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
38%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
15%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
70%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
33%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
55%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Jagiellonia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jagiellonia attack 1.26 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
40%
level
27%
Jagiellonia scores more
33%

Stal Mielec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Stal Mielec 2–1 Jagiellonia

Stal Mielec beat Jagiellonia 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.