Jagiellonia 4–0 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stal Mielec

11/3/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Jagiellonia52%

×Draw23%

Stal Mielec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.18

Jagiellonia

1.79

Stal Mielec

1.18

Jagiellonia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 83 away

1.79

creates per match

1.11

1.24

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.79

Stal Mielec

1.11

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.24

Stal Mielec

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

75%

Jagiellonia or Stal Mielec

77%

Draw or Stal Mielec

48%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

29%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

83%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

53%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

26%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

69%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

33%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

67%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.24 · 136 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.79 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Jagiellonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

52%

level

23%

Stal Mielec scores more

25%

Jagiellonia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff