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Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
4/22/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 29Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec40%
×Draw27%
Gornik Zabrze33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.28
Gornik Zabrze
1.14

Stal Mielec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 136 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Gornik Zabrze
1.15

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Gornik Zabrze
1.43

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Gornik Zabrze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
67%
Stal Mielec or Gornik Zabrze
73%
Draw or Gornik Zabrze
60%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
18%
Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
72%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
37%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
14%
Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
68%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
32%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
55%
Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.15 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
40%
level
27%
Gornik Zabrze scores more
33%

Stal Mielec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Gornik Zabrze

Stal Mielec and Gornik Zabrze drew 0-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.