Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Gornik Zabrze

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stal Mielec

10/20/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 12Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Gornik Zabrze50%

×Draw24%

Stal Mielec26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gornik ZabrzeExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.12

Gornik Zabrze

1.67

Stal Mielec

1.12

Gornik Zabrze creates 49% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 83 away

1.53

creates per match

1.11

1.12

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.53

Stal Mielec

1.11

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze

1.12

Stal Mielec

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw

74%

Gornik Zabrze or Stal Mielec

76%

Draw or Stal Mielec

50%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

27%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

81%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

50%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

23%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

67%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

31%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

66%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.53 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more

50%

level

24%

Stal Mielec scores more

26%

Gornik Zabrze at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff