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Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
4/4/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 27Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec39%
×Draw28%
Cracovia Krakow33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.24
Cracovia Krakow
1.10

Stal Mielec creates 13% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 137 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Cracovia Krakow
1.08

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Cracovia Krakow
1.34

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Cracovia Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
67%
Stal Mielec or Cracovia Krakow
72%
Draw or Cracovia Krakow
61%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
17%
Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
71%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
35%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
13%
Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
67%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
30%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
55%
Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.34 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
39%
level
28%
Cracovia Krakow scores more
33%

Stal Mielec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow

Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.