Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Cracovia Krakow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stal Mielec

12/9/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 18Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Cracovia Krakow49%

×Draw25%

Stal Mielec26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia KrakowExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.10

Cracovia Krakow

1.62

Stal Mielec

1.10

Cracovia Krakow creates 47% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 83 away

1.44

creates per match

1.11

1.09

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.44

Stal Mielec

1.11

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.09

Stal Mielec

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw

74%

Cracovia Krakow or Stal Mielec

75%

Draw or Stal Mielec

51%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

26%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

80%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

48%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

22%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

67%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

30%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

66%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 137 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.44 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more

49%

level

25%

Stal Mielec scores more

26%

Cracovia Krakow at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Stal Mielec

Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Kraków.

Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Ekstraklasa: Cracovia Krakow 2–2 Stal Mielec