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Stal Mielec vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
12/2/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion MOSiR (Mielec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Mielec49%
×Draw23%
Bytovia Bytów27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.78
Bytovia Bytów
1.27

Stal Mielec creates 40% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.80
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.08
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
73%
Stal Mielec or Bytovia Bytów
77%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
51%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
27%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
83%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
53%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
26%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
72%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
36%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
64%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.80 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
49%
level
23%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
27%

Stal Mielec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Bytovia Bytów

Stal Mielec beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in I Liga on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Mielec).