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Bytovia Bytów vs Stal Mielec — I Liga 2018

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
8/11/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 4Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów35%
×Draw27%
Stal Mielec39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.23
Stal Mielec
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Stal Mielec
1.47

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Stal Mielec
1.29

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
61%
Bytovia Bytów or Stal Mielec
73%
Draw or Stal Mielec
65%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
15%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
71%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
35%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
13%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
73%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
38%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
47%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Stal Mielec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stal Mielec attack 1.47 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
35%
level
27%
Stal Mielec scores more
39%

Stal Mielec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Bytovia Bytów 1–2 Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in I Liga on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Bytów).