Stal Kraśnik 0–3 Lewart: Result & Stats

Stal Kraśnik

FT

0 – 3

Lewart

8/22/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Kraśnik47%

×Draw24%

Lewart29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal KraśnikExpected goals in this matchLewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.26

Stal Kraśnik

1.67

Lewart

1.26

Stal Kraśnik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

1.46

creates per match

0.95

1.57

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Stal Kraśnik

1.46

Lewart

0.95

allows per match

Stal Kraśnik

1.57

Lewart

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Kraśnik ↓

Lewart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stal Kraśnik or draw

71%

Stal Kraśnik or Lewart

76%

Draw or Lewart

53%

Winning margin

Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+

25%

Lewart wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals

81%

Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals

50%

Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals

23%

Lewart 1+ goals

72%

Lewart 2+ goals

36%

Lewart 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)

62%

Lewart (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Kraśnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.46 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lewart attack 0.95 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stal Kraśnik scores more

47%

level

24%

Lewart scores more

29%

Stal Kraśnik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff