Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lewart vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
0 – 0
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
3/27/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lewart34%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.25
Stal Kraśnik
1.39

Stal Kraśnik creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
60%
Lewart or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
66%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
14%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
71%
Lewart 2+ goals
36%
Lewart 3+ goals
13%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
75%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
40%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
46%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lewart scores more
34%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
40%

Stal Kraśnik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewart vs Stal Kraśnik

Lewart and Stal Kraśnik drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.