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Stal Jasień vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stal Jasień
Stal Jasień
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
J. Rogalski 70', 63'
M. Stawny 49'
10/19/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 13Stadion MKS Stal Jasień

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Stal Jasień20%
×Draw21%
Górnik Polkowice58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Jasień
1.11
Górnik Polkowice
2.02

Górnik Polkowice creates 82% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 51 away

creates per match

Stal Jasień
0.90
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Stal Jasień
2.50
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Stal Jasień+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Jasień ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stal Jasień or draw
42%
Stal Jasień or Górnik Polkowice
79%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
80%

Winning margin

Stal Jasień wins by 2+
8%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Stal Jasień 1+ goals
67%
Stal Jasień 2+ goals
30%
Stal Jasień 3+ goals
10%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
60%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Stal Jasień (draw refunded)
26%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Jasień at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Jasień attack 0.90 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Stal Jasień defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stal Jasień scores more
20%
level
21%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
58%

Górnik Polkowice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
M. Stawny
63'
J. Rogalski
70'
J. Rogalski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Jasień vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Stal Jasień 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Stawny (49'), J. Rogalski (63', 70').

The match was played at Stadion MKS Stal Jasień in Jasień.