Górnik Polkowice vs Stal Jasień

Górnik Polkowice

AWD

3 – 0

Stal Jasień

5/9/2026

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 30Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Górnik Polkowice67%

×Draw16%

Stal Jasień16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchStal Jasień

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

1.38

Górnik Polkowice

2.86

Stal Jasień

1.38

Górnik Polkowice creates 107% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 8 away

1.72

creates per match

1.50

1.26

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Stal Jasień

1.50

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Stal Jasień

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Stal Jasień+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Stal Jasień →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

84%

Górnik Polkowice or Stal Jasień

84%

Draw or Stal Jasień

33%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

47%

Stal Jasień wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

94%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

77%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

53%

Stal Jasień 1+ goals

75%

Stal Jasień 2+ goals

40%

Stal Jasień 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

80%

Stal Jasień (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Stal Jasień away — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Stal Jasień defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.86

Stal Jasień attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

67%

level

16%

Stal Jasień scores more

16%

Górnik Polkowice at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff