Stal Brzeg 5–1 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Stal Brzeg

FT

5 – 1

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

10/10/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stal Brzeg55%

×Draw20%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal BrzegExpected goals in this matchPolonia-Stal Świdnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.46

Stal Brzeg

2.27

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.46

Stal Brzeg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

1.43

creates per match

1.28

1.65

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Stal Brzeg

1.43

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.28

allows per match

Stal Brzeg

1.65

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw

76%

Stal Brzeg or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

80%

Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

45%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

34%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

90%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

66%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

39%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

77%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

43%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

69%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.27

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more

55%

level

20%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

24%

Stal Brzeg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff