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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Stal Brzeg — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
2 – 6
Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
5/15/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica29%
×Draw22%
Stal Brzeg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.44
Stal Brzeg
1.90

Stal Brzeg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Stal Brzeg
1.30

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Stal Brzeg
1.77

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Stal Brzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
52%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Stal Brzeg
78%
Draw or Stal Brzeg
71%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
13%
Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
76%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
42%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
18%
Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
85%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
56%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
38%
Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
29%
level
22%
Stal Brzeg scores more
48%

Stal Brzeg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2–6 Stal Brzeg

Stal Brzeg beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 6-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.