Stal Brzeg 2–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Stal Brzeg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

M. Dychus 81'

J. Czajkowski 13'

N. Jaszczak 59'

D. Barbus 57'

3/12/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Stal Brzeg41%

×Draw24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal BrzegExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.52

Stal Brzeg

1.64

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.43

creates per match

1.39

1.65

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Stal Brzeg

1.43

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Stal Brzeg

1.65

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw

64%

Stal Brzeg or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

76%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

59%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

21%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

81%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

49%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

78%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

45%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

53%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more

41%

level

24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

36%

Stal Brzeg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Czajkowski

57'

D. Barbus

59'

N. Jaszczak

62'

M. Matusik

62'

M. Matusik

80'

D. Barbus

80'

D. Barbus

81'

M. Dychus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff