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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Stal Brzeg — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
M. Rakowiecki 87', 74'
M. Biskup 35'
S. Paczko 8'
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry43%
×Draw24%
Stal Brzeg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.63
Stal Brzeg
1.38

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 18% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Stal Brzeg
1.30

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Stal Brzeg
1.77

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Stal Brzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
67%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Stal Brzeg
76%
Draw or Stal Brzeg
57%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
22%
Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
80%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
48%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
22%
Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
75%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
40%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
57%
Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
43%
level
24%
Stal Brzeg scores more
33%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Paczko
35'
M. Biskup
74'
M. Rakowiecki
87'
M. Rakowiecki

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 4–0 Stal Brzeg

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Stal Brzeg 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 19, 2022.

Goals: S. Paczko (8'), M. Biskup (35'), M. Rakowiecki (74', 87').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.