Stal Brzeg 2–1 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Stal Brzeg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

3/29/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Stal Brzeg33%

×Draw24%

Górnik Polkowice43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal BrzegExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.60

Stal Brzeg

1.38

Górnik Polkowice

1.60

Górnik Polkowice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

1.43

creates per match

1.55

1.65

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stal Brzeg

1.43

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Stal Brzeg

1.65

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw

57%

Stal Brzeg or Górnik Polkowice

76%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

67%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

15%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

75%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

40%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

16%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

80%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

47%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

44%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more

33%

level

24%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

43%

Górnik Polkowice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff