Górnik Polkowice 1–1 Stal Brzeg: Result & Stats

Górnik Polkowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stal Brzeg

8/31/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Górnik Polkowice48%

×Draw24%

Stal Brzeg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchStal Brzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.28

Górnik Polkowice

1.75

Stal Brzeg

1.28

Górnik Polkowice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

1.72

creates per match

1.30

1.26

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Stal Brzeg

1.30

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Stal Brzeg

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Stal Brzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

72%

Górnik Polkowice or Stal Brzeg

76%

Draw or Stal Brzeg

52%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

26%

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

52%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

25%

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

72%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

37%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

63%

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Stal Brzeg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stal Brzeg attack 1.30 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

48%

level

24%

Stal Brzeg scores more

28%

Górnik Polkowice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff